Here are Rick’s Picks.
The morning-line favorite, Journalism, ridden by a very talented jockey Umberto Rispoli and breaking from the No. 8 post, is the only horse in the field to win three straight graded stakes races.
He defeated Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez at the San Felipe Stakes on March 1 and the Baffert horse will be competing in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field.
He also beat Baffert’s Citizen Bull, who finished fourth, in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5, Journalism’s most recent race.
Journalism has the fastest (108) and second fastest (102) Beyer Speed Figures in the field.
Sired by Curlin, Journalism is 4-0-1 in five starts. I see him going to 5-0-1 after Saturday.
Besides Journalism, probably the most bet horse for those wagering in the expansive Churchill Downs press area, here are my other top contenders.
Second: Sovereignty was charging at the end of the Florida Derby where he finished second and he’ll benefit from the longer stretch at Churchill Downs.
He’s trained by Bill Mott, whose only Derby win came via disqualification with Country House in 2019. I don’t like the No. 18 post.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Third: Rodriquez, ridden by 58-year-old jockey Mike Smith, won the Wood Memorial Stakes on the lead and that probably will be his race strategy Saturday.
He’s trained by Baffert, who’s returning to Churchill after serving a three-year suspension.
Smith has two Derby wins in 28 starts.
Fourth: I hate that Citizen Bull is breaking from the No. 1 post, but he will break fast and try to steal the Derby.
He finished a disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and Baffert said the horse wasn’t in shape. Baffert has six Derby wins in 34 starts and is tied with Ben Jones for the most wins by a trainer.
Two reasons he can’t win: The inside post that hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986 and the last 2-year-old champ to win the Derby was Nyquist (2016).
Citizen Bull was the 2-year-old champion after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Del Mar at 15-1 odds.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Best longshot: For a guy who sometimes bet names, if I like Journalism, I have to like 20-1 Publisher.
Every journalist needs a good publisher.
Those at Churchill say he’s training well over the surface. That and the fact that he adds one of the world’s top jockeys in Irad Ortiz Jr. makes him by best longshot.
He’s such a longshot because he’s 0 for 7 lifetime and only three maidens have won the Kentucky Derby, the last coming in 1933 (Brokers Tip).
He’s also trained by Steve Asmussen who’s trying to win his first Derby after 26 starts.
HOW TO WATCH, WAGER
WHAT: 151st running of the Kentucky Derby
WHEN: 6:57 p.m. Saturday
WHERE: Churchill Downs, Louisville
TV COVERAGE: The race will be televised by NBC.
LEGAL WAGERING: Bettors can legally wager on the Derby at any of the local race tracks, including Dayton Raceway, Miami Valley Gaming and Belterra Park.
Credit: Associated Press
Credit: Associated Press
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